I often plug TV shows into https://www.ratingraph.com/ to see if the show will get better and one of the things I look at is Total Votes per Episode. It's possible that the show's episode scores are only increasing due to selection effects (people who dislike the show are dropping it and not voting on later episodes).
Even good shows have declining votes per episode in their first season. But in my experience, bad shows tend to have a worse decline. For example, the first seasons of The Agency and Breaking Bad both have episode scores that trend upward. But votes for The Agency episodes dropped from a high of 1,124 to low of 483 (57% decline), whereas Breaking Bad's first season had a peak decline of 34%.
I wonder if there's a difference by episode length. Investing 3h to watch 6x 30min episodes seems more bearable than 6h for a show that I'll maybe like.... In both cases too high for me!
Believe it or not, the 5 season limit was already known back in the 60's. That's why the original Star Trek voice-over says, "...on a 5 year mission..." They didn't last 3 years though.
I've heard people say Breaking Bad starts slow, you're definitely not making that up. But it has to be one of the most bonkers takes ever. SPOILER WARNING I guess, literally in the first episode Walt is already gone from being a honest teacher, to making drugs and killing people. Like.. how are we supposed to accelerate that more?!
Agreed. I put off watching it for years. I am not one for watching anything with drugs or trashy people in it. But I put on the first season one night and binged 6 episodes before I realized I was way past my bed time. It was one of the best shows I have ever seen.
This really stood out to me, and I was going to make this same point.
I would argue (SPOILERS? I guess.) that the opening pilot is bat shit crazy, and got my attention even as 13 year old. Perfect opening and unless you’re comparing it to the heights it achieves down the road, I don’t think it’s slow.
I mean the show opens with dead bodies swishing around in a meth lab RV and an underpants clad Cranston holding a gun to approaching police sirens. It gets going pretty damn quick.
I’m also pretty sure between Episode 2 and 3, they have the whole escapade of dissolving the bodies in the bathtub and tension of Skylar confronting Jessie as Walt’s pot dealer at his house.
This is so completely removed from the point of this piece, which isn’t about Breaking Bad but the take that it’s slow was bumping around in my head while reading like a bearing in a spray paint can!
I dropped The Wire and Breaking Bad after 20 minutes. Not proud of it, but it was all I could take. What is the logic behind starting a series off dull?
This reminds me of Parks and Rec, where a friend recommended it, but added "Start from season 2, the first one is not that good." It's sad that so many shows today don't even get the opportunity to start "getting good" before they get canceled.
Anyway, I also struggle with dropping shows, hopefully next time I think of your results and just do it!
I think you missed an opportunity to hit on the effects of genre in ratings. Anecdotally, I can say I’m much more willing to continue watching a rough first episodes of a 30 minute comedy series than I would be for the the first six episodes of an hour long prestige show like The Rings of Power. Take for example Schitt’s Creek. I think it’s widely considered that the first season was the worst season of the show. Yet, when I watched it, only three hours of my life had been invested versus almost 7 hours for the Rings of Power which allowed me much more leniency to continue the show.
The ratings improving after 6 episodes isn’t telling you that the show quality improved, it’s telling you that most people don’t stick with a show they’re not enjoying past 5 episodes.
In other words, ratings aren’t going up because the show got better, they’re going up because the people bringing the ratings average down stopped watching (you’re not going to rate an episode you didn’t watch).
This analysis is assuming the same pool of raters for each episode, which isn’t true.
Agree with the 6 episodes. But whether you should stick around also depends on whether it's a show for you. I'll use The Boys as an example. I heard it was like an anti-hero series. So I watched the first season and I realized, yeah the heroes are bad guys, but it's still a hero (ie MCU-like) series. It's just gonna keep going on and on and never resolve itself - and that's not the type of show I want to watch. Completely lost interest even though it was well done.
Another one I heard about recently was They. You could tell they were just making conflict to have conflict. It wasn't going to reveal any great message or unique insight. Just drama for drama's sakes. So I have completely no interest in the world's lore.
I often plug TV shows into https://www.ratingraph.com/ to see if the show will get better and one of the things I look at is Total Votes per Episode. It's possible that the show's episode scores are only increasing due to selection effects (people who dislike the show are dropping it and not voting on later episodes).
Even good shows have declining votes per episode in their first season. But in my experience, bad shows tend to have a worse decline. For example, the first seasons of The Agency and Breaking Bad both have episode scores that trend upward. But votes for The Agency episodes dropped from a high of 1,124 to low of 483 (57% decline), whereas Breaking Bad's first season had a peak decline of 34%.
Hey I checked out and loved this after seeing your comment. Thanks!
I wonder if there's a difference by episode length. Investing 3h to watch 6x 30min episodes seems more bearable than 6h for a show that I'll maybe like.... In both cases too high for me!
I'd love to see where Lost falls into all this. Never been more bitter at the end of a bad investment.
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/gy5lut/lost_episode_ratings_plotted_in_excel_from/
Thanks! Appears I'm not alone in my furor at the end, but in smaller company than I'd assumed.
I still hate that I eventually got around to watching the whole thing.
Everything after season one was convoluted nonsense.
The ending unforgivable.
Believe it or not, the 5 season limit was already known back in the 60's. That's why the original Star Trek voice-over says, "...on a 5 year mission..." They didn't last 3 years though.
I've heard people say Breaking Bad starts slow, you're definitely not making that up. But it has to be one of the most bonkers takes ever. SPOILER WARNING I guess, literally in the first episode Walt is already gone from being a honest teacher, to making drugs and killing people. Like.. how are we supposed to accelerate that more?!
Agreed. I put off watching it for years. I am not one for watching anything with drugs or trashy people in it. But I put on the first season one night and binged 6 episodes before I realized I was way past my bed time. It was one of the best shows I have ever seen.
I agree. Maybe it is “slow” relative to the rest of the series but it’s 100% not “slow” in terms of plot progression.
This really stood out to me, and I was going to make this same point.
I would argue (SPOILERS? I guess.) that the opening pilot is bat shit crazy, and got my attention even as 13 year old. Perfect opening and unless you’re comparing it to the heights it achieves down the road, I don’t think it’s slow.
I mean the show opens with dead bodies swishing around in a meth lab RV and an underpants clad Cranston holding a gun to approaching police sirens. It gets going pretty damn quick.
I’m also pretty sure between Episode 2 and 3, they have the whole escapade of dissolving the bodies in the bathtub and tension of Skylar confronting Jessie as Walt’s pot dealer at his house.
This is so completely removed from the point of this piece, which isn’t about Breaking Bad but the take that it’s slow was bumping around in my head while reading like a bearing in a spray paint can!
The magic six? That's interesting.
I wonder if Netflix churns out six and eight episode limited shows because they already know about the magic six problem? 😁
I dropped The Wire and Breaking Bad after 20 minutes. Not proud of it, but it was all I could take. What is the logic behind starting a series off dull?
Very cool analysis!
This reminds me of Parks and Rec, where a friend recommended it, but added "Start from season 2, the first one is not that good." It's sad that so many shows today don't even get the opportunity to start "getting good" before they get canceled.
Anyway, I also struggle with dropping shows, hopefully next time I think of your results and just do it!
Which run of Doctor Who are you referring to? Is it episode six from Season 1 in 1964? Is it episode six from the relaunch season "1" in 2005?
I think you missed an opportunity to hit on the effects of genre in ratings. Anecdotally, I can say I’m much more willing to continue watching a rough first episodes of a 30 minute comedy series than I would be for the the first six episodes of an hour long prestige show like The Rings of Power. Take for example Schitt’s Creek. I think it’s widely considered that the first season was the worst season of the show. Yet, when I watched it, only three hours of my life had been invested versus almost 7 hours for the Rings of Power which allowed me much more leniency to continue the show.
The ratings improving after 6 episodes isn’t telling you that the show quality improved, it’s telling you that most people don’t stick with a show they’re not enjoying past 5 episodes.
In other words, ratings aren’t going up because the show got better, they’re going up because the people bringing the ratings average down stopped watching (you’re not going to rate an episode you didn’t watch).
This analysis is assuming the same pool of raters for each episode, which isn’t true.
Can you just assume that the show will peak at episode 6, and then work out based on episode 1 and 2 what the peak will be?
There must be a difference between a 22 episode series and newer streaming shows (many of which are only 6 or 7 episodes long anyway!)
Agree with the 6 episodes. But whether you should stick around also depends on whether it's a show for you. I'll use The Boys as an example. I heard it was like an anti-hero series. So I watched the first season and I realized, yeah the heroes are bad guys, but it's still a hero (ie MCU-like) series. It's just gonna keep going on and on and never resolve itself - and that's not the type of show I want to watch. Completely lost interest even though it was well done.
Another one I heard about recently was They. You could tell they were just making conflict to have conflict. It wasn't going to reveal any great message or unique insight. Just drama for drama's sakes. So I have completely no interest in the world's lore.
I've watched the first three episodes of Severance and fell asleep during 2 of them. For me, I'm inclined to say threes enough.
I watched one season of Walking Dead and quit, never to look back on that or any of its spinoffs. The same with Lost.
Both are wildly popular shows that I have no interest in revisiting. And I had high hopes for both.
Having this issue with Paradise on Hulu. 3 episodes in and I want to drop it… but the premise is cool, so maaaaaaybe worth sticking it out?