I have thought about these issue for years without achieving anything like the clarity you did here. Hope you return to this topic because there are more interesting questions to ask (eg solo artists vs bands) and have a hunch the data has more secrets to reveal.
"Perhaps the simplest way to avoid the second-album trap is to keep making debut albums." Reminds me how in the comic book world, they always release a new #1 with whatever retconning reason.
Great essay. Especially interesting to factor in how age plays a part. It's like pro sports. There's a window where you're gonna peak. There are freaks of nature anomalies like Tom Brady or Green Day who have multiple peaks spanning different decades, but it's typical to wash out after a few years and be replaced by the newcomer.
I have thought about these issue for years without achieving anything like the clarity you did here. Hope you return to this topic because there are more interesting questions to ask (eg solo artists vs bands) and have a hunch the data has more secrets to reveal.
"Perhaps the simplest way to avoid the second-album trap is to keep making debut albums." Reminds me how in the comic book world, they always release a new #1 with whatever retconning reason.
Fans of country music are far more loyal than pop music fans. I'm left to wonder how your question would play out in country (or even R&B)?
You are so good at this
Great essay. Especially interesting to factor in how age plays a part. It's like pro sports. There's a window where you're gonna peak. There are freaks of nature anomalies like Tom Brady or Green Day who have multiple peaks spanning different decades, but it's typical to wash out after a few years and be replaced by the newcomer.
Haha, LCD getting dragged through the mud lately: https://slate.com/culture/2025/12/lcd-soundsystem-tour-nyc-knockdown-center-all-my-friends.html full disclosure, I too fell in love with them in college and consider them one of my all-time favorites but I'm fully aware that they are slightly embarrassing now.