Which Old Movies Stand the Test of Time? A Statistical Analysis
An exploration of "timeless" films.
Intro: Why is an 85-Year-Old Movie Trending?
November 2024 saw the long-awaited theatrical release of Wicked, the big-screen adaptation of the wildly *popular* Broadway musical—best described as "Wizard of Oz fan fiction for theater nerds." In the run-up to Wicked's release, I noticed a rather curious online phenomenon: The Wizard of Oz had begun trending on Letterboxd, becoming one of the site's most frequently logged films. This 85-year-old movie was being rediscovered and reappraised by thousands of people—demonstrating behavior reminiscent of Marvel nerds prepping for a new MCU release.
Somehow, a movie older than Joe Biden (who, if you haven't heard, is quite old) has remained a durable fixture of popular culture for nearly nine decades, to the point where intellectual property built around its villain (who is on screen for all of 12 minutes) can gross over $700M at the box office.
Somehow, The Wizard of Oz endures in our collective memory, while most other films released in 1939 have faded from cultural awareness (in fact, you couldn't watch many of these movies if you tried). Cinematic legacy is an alchemical phenomenon: some movies hit theaters, make some money, and are promptly forgotten, while other films disappoint at the box office while "standing the test of time."
So today, we'll explore the movie classics that persist within the zeitgeist and how these films endure through continued rediscovery and adaptation.
Which Movie Classics Stand the Test of Time?
MovieLens is an online community that collects user-submitted movie ratings and then uses this data to deliver personalized film recommendations. The site is overseen by The University of Minnesota's Grouplens Research lab, which has graciously published a dataset of over 32 million movie ratings collected between 1995 and 2023. We'll use this data to gauge a film's popularity in the years following its release.
Movie viewership follows a predictable pattern of decay over time. A film is advertised, released, and consumed, then proceeds to a second life on streaming and DVD. Each year, viewership for the average movie declines until that work fades from collective memory—or at least that's the case for most movies.
Using the MovieLens dataset, we can calculate how often a standard cinematic release is rated in the years following its debut, thus mapping a normative trajectory for film viewership over time. For instance, we'd expect a 20-year-old movie to receive ~100 MovieLens ratings in its 20th year of existence.
Once we've established our average values, we can compare individual films against these benchmarks to determine how frequently each movie is rated relative to similarly-aged films. For example, the highly mediocre romantic comedy Must Love Dogs was reviewed 16 times in 2014 (nine years after its release), which is 87% below expectation, while Gone with the Wind was reviewed 220 times in 2014 (75 years after its release), which is 950% above expectation.
For each film, we'll average these comparisons into a single statistic. In the case of Must Love Dogs, this canine-forward Diane Lane rom-com is watched and rated 73% less than similarly-aged movies. Ipso facto, Must Love Dogs does not stand the test of time (you heard it here first!).
We'll classify a movie as "old" if its release predates the "New Hollywood" movement of the late 1960s and early 1970s. Key "New Hollywood" films include The Godfather, The Graduate, Jaws, Taxi Driver, The Exorcist, The Last Picture Show, M*A*S*H, and Bonne & Clyde—productions that deviated from traditional studio fare and modernized filmmaking through their popularization of:
Movie shoots on location (i.e., New York City) rather than sound stages (i.e., a fake set depicting New York City).
Naturalistic acting
Grounded depictions of sex and violence
Stories built around anti-heroes
Long takes, unconventional camera angles, non-linear editing, and jump cuts
The use of rock music in soundtracks
1967 is widely considered the dawn of New Hollywood, a landmark year that saw The Graduate, In the Heat of the Night, and Bonnie & Clyde earn Best Picture nominations—so we'll examine films released before this time.
Our shortlist of older films that "stand the test of time" is led by The Wizard of Oz, Casablanca, and Citizen Kane—all movies I was forced to write essays about within my first few months of film school.
Some observations from this list:
1. (Almost) None of These Films Won Best Picture
Most of these films were ignored by the Oscars, with the exception of Gone with the Wind and Casablanca. This insight isn't particularly novel: media pundits have long criticized the Oscars for failing to capture a year's most memorable movies. Nonetheless, it's nice to see this grievance quantified.
Does this mean I'll finally stop caring about the Academy Awards? Not a chance! My silly little lizard brain loves the Oscars. I've even memorized every Best Picture winner since 1960—which is a trivia factoid no one cares to hear.
2. The Culturance Relevance of Big-Name Directors
The film nerd brain loves lists. Cinephiles love making lists and orienting their viewing behavior around the lists of others. This pastime exemplifies a completionist mindset that, at times, can be downright baffling. I know someone who decided to watch every Vin Deisel movie "just because"—which is an intriguing (and perhaps tortuous) way to spend one's limited time on Earth.
Many movies that "stand the test of time" are signature works by directors whose filmographies serve as homework for list-loving film nerds. There's Stanley Kubrick's Dr. Strangelove, Akira Kurosawa's Seven Samurai, and three Alfred Hitchcock films (Rear Window, Vertigo, and Psycho). Sure, these movies stand on their own, satisfying viewers unfamiliar with the minutia of Kubrick's filmography. Still, they likely receive an added viewership boost from film nerds completing "Stanley Kubrick September"—because who doesn't love a good list.
3. Adaptations Foster Perpetual Relevance
Several enduring classics have served as source material for other movies:
The Wizard of Oz has spawned The Wiz and Wicked.
In 2020, Netflix released a movie called Mank that chronicles the struggles of Citizen Kane screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz.
1997 saw the release of a shot-for-shot remake of Psycho with Vince Vaughn as the titular psychopath.
Two Disney properties on this list—Snow White and Fantasia—will never stop being adapted because it's Disney, and they don't care if you have franchise fatigue because your kids will watch whatever slop they mine from this intellectual property, and you'll pay for the privilege of occupying their attention for 90 minutes. March of 2025 will see the release of a live-action adaptation of Snow White that everyone will hate but will also make $1.2B.
4. Apparently People Are Still Watching a Movie From 1902
A Trip to the Moon is a silent French film widely considered the first science fiction movie ever made. This 13-minute short follows a group of astronomers who travel to the moon, encounter its inhabitants, and return to Earth—though this film is most fondly remembered for an iconic shot where the moon gets a rocket lodged in its eye.
It's odd that a 123-year-old movie is being watched more frequently than 2004's Must Love Dogs. It's also odd that many of these people are then logging this 123-year-old movie on Letterboxd and MovieLens.
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How Classic Films Are Continually Revisited and Rediscovered
Most movies live one life—consumed by a single generation of viewers before fading into obscurity—while a rarefied 0.1% of films have somehow remained relevant across generations, sampled on cable TV, VHS, DVD, Blu-Ray, and now streaming.
Consider The Wizard of Oz, a timeless classic that has been adapted a mind-boggling number of times:
In 1900, "The Wonderful Wizard of Oz" by L. Frank Baum was published as a children's book. Baum's novel has been interpreted as an allegory for the late 19th-century Populist movement in the United States, critiquing the gold standard (the Yellow Brick Road), industrialization, and contemporary political power struggles. I can't say I picked up on these themes on my first watch of The Wizard of Oz (at age five). I just liked Toto.
In 1910, a silent film called The Wonderful Wizard of Oz was released, heavily influenced by a Broadway stage play that had premiered eight years earlier.
In 1939, MGM's The Wizard of Oz became the most famous adaptation to date, starring Judy Garland as Dorothy. The movie features brilliant Technicolor cinematography and iconic songs like "Somewhere Over the Rainbow."
In 1975, a Broadway musical called "The Wiz" reimagined The Wizard of Oz with an all-Black cast and a funk/soul soundtrack. This musical was adapted for the screen three years later, with Diana Ross as Dorothy and Michael Jackson as the Scarecrow.
In 2003, Wicked debuted on Broadway, becoming one of the most successful musicals of all time.
In 2013, a prequel exploring the origins of the Wizard called Oz the Great and Powerful made $500M at the box office.
2024 saw the release of a Wicked film adaptation starring Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.
For brevity's sake, I've omitted several adaptations from this list, including a Wizard of Oz-themed muppets movie. Needless to say, The Wizard of Oz has long served as a compelling source text for generations of creatives—especially once its critiques of 19th-century populism and monetary theory were stripped away.
Every Oz adaptation—both stage and screen—sparks renewed interest in its source material. Curiously, this newfound interest tends to revolve around the iconic 1939 film rather than Baum's original novel.
We can quantify these periods of concentrated rediscovery and celebration using Google search data. Over the past two decades, MGM's 1939 Wizard of Oz has experienced two notable traffic spikes—sparked by film prequels—and one tremendous surge following a theatrical re-release in 2019.
During these peaks, monthly search volume increased by as much as five million queries—which is a lot—and at times reached a staggering fifty million monthly queries.
We see a similar surge in search interest for Citizen Kane ahead of David Fincher's Mank in 2020—a film that chronicles the story of Kane co-writer Herman J. Mankiewicz.
Of all the intellectual property you could mine from Citizen Kane, focusing on the movie's long-forgotten screenwriter is a decidedly weird choice. But they put this movie on Netflix, and people streamed it—and then some fraction of those viewers went on to watch an 80-year-old movie (so I guess that's cool).
Meanwhile, some older films continue to resonate with audiences thanks to their longstanding association with a holiday. Every Christmas, millions of people rewatch It's a Wonderful Life, a 1946 crowd-pleaser about beleaguered family man George Bailey, whose suicidal ideations bring the intervention of a guardian angel (on Christmas!). I've always considered this film a curious choice for America's go-to Christmas movie—especially when you reduce its plot to a single sentence. Apparently, millions of people disagree, as this film experiences a massive surge in search interest every Christmas, boosted by its addition to streaming catalogs in the mid-2010s.
Sometimes, I wonder what rewatch behaviors will look like several decades from now. Will people revisit It's a Wonderful Life and Love Actually on Christmas Eve in 2085, noting how these movies contain surprisingly dark storylines? Perhaps 2065 will bring a Shawshank Redemption remake, thus introducing the 1994 original to new generations. Or maybe the 2070s will be exclusively defined by two types of intellectual property:
Disney slop
The Wizard of Oz Extended Universe (WoOEU).
These stories will be adapted ad nauseam, while all non-Oz, non-Disney source material will simply fade away.
If I were a betting man, I'd put money on the continued existence of Disney slop (through 2085 and beyond) because that's just how the world works. The Disney Slop Industrial Complex will outlive us all.
Final Thoughts: What Makes This Film So Special?
In preparation for this essay, I rewatched Citizen Kane for the first time since film school. If you thought that last sentence was pretentious, wait until you get a load of this next one: I watched this movie on *physical media* 🤯.
My wife—a rational person who is not preoccupied with plastic discs and 80-year-old movies—walked in while I was watching this film and posed a question so many have asked about Citizen Kane: "What makes this film so special?" After all, Citizen Kane continually places #1 on the American Film Institute's “Greatest Movies” list. Yet it's hard to discern this film's significance absent its historical context.
Citizen Kane's perceived importance is tied to myriad formal innovations:
Non-linear Storytelling: The film uses flashbacks and multiple unreliable narrators to capture Kane's rise and fall.
Low-Angle Shots: Orson Welles used low-angle shots that revealed ceilings (uncommon at the time) to create a sense of power and unease. That's right; Citizen Kane popularized ceilings in movies.
Innovative Editing Techniques: The film incorporated montages, optical printing, and creative transitions like "wipes," which were groundbreaking for their time.
Deep Focus Cinematography: The film frequently keeps the foreground, middle ground, and background all sharply in focus.
But here's the thing about Citizen Kane's cinematic achievements: 99.99% of modern movie watchers have no reason to care about these things. Believe it or not, the average viewer is entirely unconcerned with how often ceilings appear on screen.
When watching older films, I often engage in a thought experiment to enhance their entertainment value: I try to view them from the perspective of a moviegoer at the time of their release. What was it like in 1939 when Dorothy opened the door to Oz, revealing a technicolor world? Were people simply mind-blown in 1902 when they saw the moon get a rocket lodged in its eye?
Sometimes, I wonder whether I can truly enjoy older films absent these self-imposed "thought experiments." If I have to perform mental gymnastics to find a film entertaining, is it really worth my time?
As much as I hate to admit it, I struggle to connect with films predating the "New Hollywood" era—though this preference isn't universal. The Wizard of Oz raked in $1.2 million on the first day of its 2019 re-release, far surpassing the lifetime gross of many modern movies. Meanwhile, an army of film nerds stands ready to champion Citizen Kane, Casablanca, and a 13-minute silent film from 1902 because they appreciate "pure cinema," and I guess I'm just a rube who demands naturalistic acting and grounded depictions of sex and violence.
Certain stories refuse to fade from popular culture—people are drawn to these tales without any mental gymnastics—especially those rooted in critiques of 19th-century populism and the gold standard.
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Casablanca gets a small boost from being featured in the movie, "When Harry Met Sally". It also has memorable quotes:
“I'm shocked, shocked, to find that gambling is going on in here."
"Your winnings, sir"
“Louis, I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship."
I judged a movie by how many scenes could be cut and the movie could still play. Some movies are so awful, the entire film could be cut and the world would still spin, maybe better. But there is only one movie where I would not cut a single scene: Casablanca. In my mind, it’s the best movie ever made…