Which TV Shows Transcend America's Red-Blue State Divide? A Statistical Analysis.

What TV shows transcend America's cultural wars, and what shows do not.

“HD TV,” from DALL·E 2.

Intro: All in the Family.

In the beginning (of television), there were three networks — ABC, NBC, and CBS. These networks provided limited content options, with shows like I Love Lucy, The Ed Sullivan Show, and Leave it to Beaver, programs that painted an uncontroversial and harmonious vision of American domesticity. Then in 1971, American audiences met Archie Bunker. 

In the 1970s, All in the Family was America's biggest sitcom, and its leading man Archie Bunker presented an honest representation of a conservative working-class man. In an era when television glossed over contentious topics, Archie's unapologetic views on race, gender, and sexuality became the show's focal point. American television had its first "anti-hero" — a rough template for future anti-heroes like Tony Soprano, Walter White, and Omar Little. 

But the most incredible accomplishment of Archie Bunker's character was his near-universal appeal. And yet, one has to wonder whether All in the Family and Archie Bunker would garner widespread acclaim today. 

America's highly fragmented television landscape is characterized by a proliferation of cable and streaming content catering to niche demographics and political leanings. TV shows like All in the Family once possessed the ability to captivate viewers across the political spectrum — so what shows accomplish this feat in our current media environment? What type of programs appeal to audiences in left-leaning and right-leaning geographies? And what does it mean for a program to garner "universal" appeal in today's television landscape?    

Methodology: Analysis Approach, Show Selection, and an Attempt at Impartiality. 

Determining Geopolitical Popularity: 

Our analysis will investigate the correlation between a show's Google state search volume and a state's 2020 presidential election party vote share. Consider the following data sample for CBS's Criminal Minds:

Overall, Criminal Minds demonstrates a strong positive correlation between state search volume and the GOP vote share in those states (with a correlation coefficient of 0.70). Said otherwise, Criminal Minds sees elevated search volumes in right-leaning geographies.      

Sources for Top TV Shows:

Our analysis will only focus on multi-season American shows produced after 1990, when cable programming began to proliferate. TV shows were sourced from the following lists:  IMDB TV Top 250, YouGov's 100 Most Popular TV Shows,  Rolling Stone 100 Greatest TV Shows of All Time, and Most Popular TV Shows of All Time by Nielsen Ratings.

An Attempt at Impartial Qualitative Analysis:

How does one maintain (some semblance of) objectivity when writing about America's culture wars? With the power of AI, of course! I'll run my initial high-level observations through ChatGPT and provide direct commentary from everybody's favorite large language model. Let's hope ChatGPT is a bipartisan large language model. 

Initial Insights: There are Many Shows of Widespread Geographic Appeal. 

To consume American news media is to be told of two distinct American cultures (one red and one blue) living parallel lives in dueling worlds. Well, that vision is far from universal, as a large swath of popular television programming maintains generalized geopolitical appeal: 

Of the 150 programs analyzed, ~40% of shows demonstrate little-to-no geopolitical leaning and ~20% of content exhibited a weak correlation with Democrat or GOP vote share. Sure, this does mean that the remaining 40% of TV shows present a moderate or strong correlation with geographic partisanship, but I'd rather focus on the positive. 

Here are our 57 low-correlation shows, programs with search volumes unassociated with a geopolitical pattern (the bigger the bubble, the lower the show’s geopolitical affiliation):

And here are the 93 programs that exhibit a weak, moderate, or strong correlation with state Democrat or GOP vote share (the bigger the bubble, the greater the show’s geopolitical affiliation):

In subsequent sections, we'll analyze trends specific to shows correlated (or not correlated) with a particular geopolitical leaning.    

Shows Heavily-Searched in Right-Leaning States.

What makes a show popular in right-leaning geographies? 

I can't express how happy I am that Yellowstone tops this list. Saturday Night Live once called Yellowstone "Succession outdoors." Sure, that description is pithy, but it also eludes to Yellowstone's uniqueness. Watching Yellowstone is to experience a setting and cultural landscape rarely depicted on TV, let alone "prestige TV." It's nice to watch a show not based in New York City or Los Angeles.

Here are some trends we find in our list of shows most searched in right-leaning geographies:           

1. Procedural Crime Dramas (CSI, Blue Bloods, NCIS):

ChatGPT's Take: 

Procedural crime dramas like CSI, Blue Bloods, and NCIS might appeal to right-leaning audiences as they emphasize themes of law and order, showcasing the importance of strong law enforcement institutions. Procedural dramas also follow a tried-and-true formula, which can be comforting and enjoyable for viewers who appreciate a predictable, consistent narrative structure.

My Take on ChatGPT's Take:

ChatGPT's emphasis on law and order is heavy-handed, and calling a show's narrative structure tried-and-true (a.k.a formulaic) may read as a dig. For one thing, I watched CSI: Miami every week growing up and loved every second of that (somewhat predictable) show.        

2. Traditional Multi-Camera Sitcoms (Big Bang Theory, Home Improvement):

ChatGPT's Take:

Multi-camera sitcoms like The Big Bang Theory and Home Improvement might appeal to right-leaning viewers due to their focus on traditional values, relatable situations, and familiar formats. The predictability and comforting nature of the multi-camera setup, along with the use of laughter tracks, create a sense of nostalgia and continuity that may further appeal to right-leaning viewers.

My Take on ChatGPT's Take:

ChatGPT clearly associates conservative values with "predictability" and "comfort." Also, I've never heard a laugh track and thought, "wow, this makes me feel nostalgic." To be honest, I enjoy laugh tracks.       

3. Reality TV (American Idol, Undercover Boss, Pawn Stars):

ChatGPT's Take:

Reality shows like Undercover Boss, American Idol, and Pawn Stars often emphasize hard work, personal responsibility, and entrepreneurship, which align with conservative values that champion individualism and self-reliance. These shows highlight the importance of competition and the pursuit of success, reinforcing the meritocratic ideals often associated with right-leaning ideologies.

My Take on ChatGPT's Take:

This ChatGPT analysis undertakes greater complexity and ultimately reads as a more suitable explanation. Though by this logic, conservative economists who promote individual liberty and free markets (like Milton Freidman and Friedrich Hayek) should adore Pawn Stars and American Idol — which would be awesome if true.

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Shows Heavily-Searched in Left-Leaning States.

What are the hallmarks of liberal media, at least when it comes to television programming?

As fate would have it, Succession (a.k.a Succession indoors) tops our list, providing excellent symmetry with Yellowstone's red-state search popularity. Apparently well-executed dynastic dramas are wildly popular, though their demographic appeal is strongly contingent upon their setting. 

Some trends we find on our list of shows most searched in left-leaning geographies are:        

1. Single-Camera Comedy, Political Satire, and Sketch Shows (Veep, Saturday Night Live, The Daily Show):

ChatGPT's Take:

Single-camera comedy shows like Veep or Curb Your Enthusiasm, sketch comedy shows like Saturday Night Live, and political satire like The Daily Show often tackle contemporary social issues with a satirical, irreverent or absurdist approach, frequently adopting progressive viewpoints. The innovative and experimental nature of these programs allows for more nuanced storytelling and character development, often resulting in thought-provoking content that challenges the status quo and encourages critical thinking.

My Take on ChatGPT's Take:

ChatGPT paints a stark difference between "predictable" and "comforting" content enjoyed by conservatives and "nuanced" and "thought-provoking" content enjoyed by liberals. I didn't realize ChatGPT was such an elitist. 

2. Shows About Metropolitan Elites (Sex and the City, Silicon Valley):

ChatGPT's Take:

Shows about urban elites like Succession, Sex and the City, or Silicon Valley often explore contemporary social and cultural issues, such as gender equality, diversity, and the impact of technology on society, which tend to resonate with progressive audiences. These shows are typically set in urban, cosmopolitan environments associated with progressive politics and liberal attitudes.

My Take on ChatGPT's Take:

Show setting is a massive driver of demographical performance. Not just for the physical place but the values associated with that place. Nearly every show on this list is based in New York City, San Francisco, Washington D.C., or Los Angeles.       

3. "Prestige Television" (Barry, Succession):

ChatGPT's Take:

"Prestige TV" shows, like Barry or Succession, often delve into complex, morally ambiguous narratives and feature well-developed, multi-dimensional characters that engage with contemporary social and cultural issues. The high-quality production values and innovative storytelling techniques employed in these shows allow for a more in-depth exploration of themes like power dynamics, wealth inequality, and identity, which often align with left-leaning sensibilities.

My Take on ChatGPT's Take:

Again, ChatGPT thinks liberals have a distinctive appreciation for "well-developed, multi-dimensional characters." Reading this explanation made me cringe. Though I did ask the AI to write this in the first place, so these cringe-worthy answers are my fault.  

Shows Searched Equally Across Left- and Right-Leaning States.

What makes a show popular across a diverse set of geographies?

1. Comedic Cartoons (South Park, Rick and Morty, Family Guy): 

ChatGPT's Take:

Cartoon programs like Family Guy, South Park, and Rick and Morty often adopt an irreverent and unapologetic comedic approach that challenges viewers across the political spectrum with humor that transcends political affiliations. The animation format further enables creative storytelling and inventive visuals that captivate audiences with their artistic value and entertainment factor.

My Take on ChatGPT's Take:

I agree with ChatGPT's analysis, as cartoons like South Park and Family Guy are notorious for skewering everyone, such as liberals, conservatives, Bono, the devil, and Sadam Hussein. These shows are agnostic of political persuasion, while Rick and Morty is primarily based in outer space, which demonstrates minimal cultural affiliation. 

2. Fantasy Cartoons (Young Justice, Dragon Ball Z, Avatar: The Last Airbender):

ChatGPT's Take:

Fantasy cartoon programs like Young Justice, Dragon Ball Z, and Avatar: The Last Airbender offer engaging stories, rich world-building, and memorable characters that can be appreciated by audiences with diverse political views. The fantastical elements and imaginative settings provide an escape from the real world and allow viewers to immerse themselves in these captivating adventures, fostering a shared enjoyment that transcends political boundaries.

My Take on ChatGPT's Take:

I can't remember thinking about George Bush, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, or the debt ceiling while watching anime. Well said, ChatGPT. 

3. Non-procedural Crime Shows (Making a Murderer, Mindhunter, Hannibal):

ChatGPT's Take:

Non-procedural crime programs like Making a Murderer, Mindhunter, and Hannibal delve into the intricate details and psychological aspects of criminal cases, offering a different perspective on the criminal justice system than traditional procedural dramas. These shows often focus on the complexities of both criminals and investigators, which can captivate audiences regardless of their political leanings.

My Take on ChatGPT's Take:

Apparently serial killers like Hannibal Lecter frighten everyone equally. ChatGPT distinguishes between a focus on criminal psychology (which it claims to be universally valued) and law-and-order criminal pursuit (which it claims to be heavily valued by conservatives).

Final Thoughts: Growing into Politics. 

“Raised on TV,” from DALL·E 2.

As I reviewed the list of shows searched across a diverse set of geographical locations (a.k.a our nonpartisan list), I couldn't help but notice a recurring theme: most of these shows were produced for children and young adults. And a deeper look at our right-leaning and left-leaning programs reveals these shows to be primarily produced for adult audiences. 

Socialization theory posits that an individual's political ideals are shaped by their social environment. Family, peers, and educational institutions slowly transmit norms and beliefs that help individuals form their cultural and political identity over time — like which TV shows to watch.

Growing up, I loved all sorts of TV. I loved sitcoms like How I Met Your Mother and Friends, procedural crime dramas like CSI: Miami and Law & Order, "prestige TV" like Breaking Bad and Mad Men, and emergent reality TV series like American Idol and Survivor. And then, over time, my content diet became heavily influenced by those around me. 

During my first year of college, I told a friend of my appreciation for How I Met Your Mother, and he told me, "laugh tracks are dumb." I stopped watching How I Met Your Mother soon after and probably replaced it with something like Black Mirror or Silicon Valley — because that's what everyone else was watching.   

Like individual viewers, the television industry has grown increasingly politicized with age. And while shows of universal appeal still exist, these shows are decreasing in prevalence, especially when produced for an adult audience. 

I often imagine how Archie Bunker might exist in today's television landscape, especially against America's left-right divide. All in the Family could take on a few different formats:

• For Right-Leaning Geographies: Archie and his family unit would exist in a state similar to their original incarnation, a traditional multi-camera sitcom with a laugh track. This "tried-and-true" design may have greater appeal to right-leaning geographies (according to ChatGPT).

• For Left-Leaning Geographies: All in the Family would feature high-quality performances from Academy Award-winning actors and an intricately plotted narrative befitting of prestige television. Perhaps Archie would live in New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, or Washington, D.C. 

• For No Particular Geopolitical Audience: Archie Bunker would exist as a cartoon unconcerned with cultural affiliation. I'm essentially describing Family Guy, a show heavily based on All in the Family and other prominent sitcoms from the 70s and 80s.

Whatever the format, it's clear that All in the Family, a show defined by contentious political discourse, would not achieve a broad cultural impact if made today. And while nobody wants to return to a world of three television channels, it's clear that a proliferation of choice comes with trade-offs.   

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Want to chat about data and statistics? Have an interesting data project? Just want to say hi? Email daniel@statsignificant.com  

Note: Our analysis factored out significant Google search outliers. For example, Breaking Bad experiences extremely high search traffic in New Mexico (where the series is based). Therefore, we would filter out New Mexico from the Breaking Bad data.